The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new estimates indicating a disappointingly slow growth in the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), casting a shadow over the aviation industry’s decarbonization efforts.
In 2024, SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), a mere 0.3% of global jet fuel production. This figure, while double the production in 2023, falls significantly short of previous estimates that projected 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion liters) for 2024. Key SAF production facilities in the US have delayed their production ramp-up to the first half of 2025, contributing to the slowdown.
IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, expressed concern over the sluggish pace of SAF production. “SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly,” Walsh said. He attributed the delay to mixed signals from governments, which continue to subsidise fossil fuel exploration and production, and investors’ hesitation to commit to new generation fuel producers without guarantees of easy money.
Walsh called for governments to accelerate progress by phasing out fossil fuel production subsidies and implementing strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting renewable energies, including SAF.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President of Sustainability and Chief Economist, emphasised that the aviation industry’s decarbonisation is part of the global energy transition. “We need the whole world to produce as much renewable energy as possible for everybody. Airlines simply want to access their fair share of that output,” she said.
To achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA estimates that between 3,000 to over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be needed, requiring an annual average capex of about $128 billion over a 30-year period. This amount is significantly less than the estimated total investments in the solar and wind energy markets between 2004 and 2022.
Walsh urged governments to deliver concrete policy incentives to accelerate renewable energy production, citing the transition to wind and solar power as a model to follow. He suggested that a portion of the subsidies currently given to the fossil fuel industry could be redirected to fund the energy transition, including SAF.
In the short term, IATA proposes three critical measures to accelerate SAF production and use: increasing co-processing in existing refineries, diversifying SAF production methods, and creating a global SAF accounting framework.
Despite the challenges, there is significant public support for SAF. A recent IATA survey revealed that 86% of travellers agree that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to access SAF, and that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.
