GMPB — May 29th, 2026 — EV Adoption Accelerates as Heatwaves Test Battery Performance

IEA sees EVs approaching 30% of global car sales as energy security concerns accelerate market shift

Global electric car sales are expected to rise to 23 million in 2026, accounting for close to 30% of all new passenger cars sold worldwide, as governments and consumers increasingly turn to electrification in response to fuel price volatility and energy security concerns linked to the Middle East crisis, according to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2026.

The report suggests the current energy crisis is reinforcing structural momentum behind electric mobility, with EV deployment increasingly framed not only as a climate policy tool, but also as an industrial competitiveness and energy resilience strategy.

Global electric car sales increased by 20% in 2025 to exceed 20 million vehicles, meaning one in four new cars sold worldwide was electric. Nearly 100 countries recorded annual EV sales growth, while around 40 countries reached EV market shares of at least 10%.

Europe recorded the strongest growth among major markets, with electric vehicle sales increasing by more than 30% year-on-year to reach 28% of total car sales. The IEA linked the increase partly to the tightening of EU CO2 standards for passenger cars, which prompted manufacturers to adjust pricing strategies and expand lower-cost EV offerings.

China remained the world’s largest EV market, with electric vehicles accounting for nearly 55% of all new car sales in 2025, although sales growth slowed compared with previous years following changes to domestic support measures, including a temporary suspension of the country’s trade-in scheme.

In the United States, EV sales remained broadly flat at just under 10% of total car sales. The report associated weaker momentum at the end of 2025 with the expiry of federal EV tax credits.

Outside the three main markets, the report highlighted particularly strong growth across Southeast Asia and Latin America. EV sales in Southeast Asia more than doubled in 2025 to reach close to 20% of total sales, led by Viet Nam, Indonesia and Thailand. In Latin America, sales increased by 75%, driven primarily by Brazil and Mexico.

The IEA argued that the current oil market disruption is reshaping transport policy calculations in many import-dependent economies. Road transport currently accounts for close to half of global oil demand, and the agency estimated that the global EV fleet displaced around 1.7 million barrels per day of oil consumption in 2025.

The report compared the current crisis to previous energy shocks that triggered structural transport policy shifts, including fuel economy regulation following the oil crises of the 1970s and EV stimulus measures introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the IEA, higher oil prices are increasing the economic attractiveness of electric vehicles, particularly for corporate fleets and consumers in markets highly exposed to fuel imports. Based on average April oil prices, annual fuel cost savings associated with driving an EV in the European Union were 35% higher than in 2025.

Although global EV sales during the first quarter of 2026 fell by 8% year-on-year following policy changes in China and the United States, the report stressed that the headline decline masked strong growth elsewhere. European EV sales increased by close to 30%, Asia Pacific markets excluding China rose by 80%, and Latin America grew by 75%.

Around 30 countries recorded monthly EV sales records in March 2026, while approximately 60 countries registered year-on-year sales growth.

The agency projects that, even without additional policy measures, the global EV fleet excluding two- and three-wheelers could expand from nearly 80 million vehicles today to as many as 510 million by 2035.

Under the IEA’s central scenarios, electric vehicles could account for around half of global passenger car sales by 2035. China is projected to exceed a 90% EV sales share by that point, supported by falling battery costs and increasing price competitiveness among domestic manufacturers.

The report highlighted that 70% of battery electric cars sold in China during 2025 were already cheaper than the average internal combustion engine vehicle. In several Southeast Asian markets, imported Chinese EVs are also approaching price parity with conventional vehicles.

Trade and industrial competitiveness featured prominently throughout the report. China produced nearly three quarters of the almost 22 million electric cars manufactured globally in 2025 and accounted for more than 80% of global battery cell production.

Chinese electric car exports doubled to more than 2.5 million units as domestic production exceeded local demand. According to the IEA, imports from China represented 55% of EV sales in countries outside Europe and the United States, up from less than 5% five years ago.

The report additionally pointed to rapid growth in electric trucks, particularly in China, where one in four trucks sold in 2025 was electric. Globally, electric truck sales more than doubled last year to account for around 9% of total truck sales.

In Europe, the IEA projects total cost of ownership parity between electric and diesel trucks around 2030, supported by falling battery costs and expanding charging infrastructure.

The report also highlighted broader industrial and technological shifts linked to electrification, including the expansion of software-defined vehicles, ultra-fast charging systems and artificial intelligence applications in the automotive sector.

At the same time, the IEA noted that growing vehicle digitalisation and electrification are increasing reliance on geographically concentrated semiconductor and battery supply chains, with China maintaining a dominant position across battery cells and key materials processing.

Conservatives underestimate environmental impact of sustainable behaviour, study finds

Consumers’ perceptions of the environmental impact of sustainable behaviour are strongly shaped by political ideology, with conservatives consistently underestimating the effect of their own actions compared with liberals, according to new research published in the Journal of Consumer Psychology.

The paper, based on seven behavioural studies conducted in the United States, found that conservatives were less likely to perceive actions such as adopting plant based diets, reducing food waste, cycling, recycling or purchasing carbon offsets as having meaningful environmental benefits, despite identical objective climate impacts.

Researchers argued the divergence is not solely explained by climate change scepticism. Instead, the study found conservatives were significantly more likely to perceive sustainable behaviour as uncommon within their own political or social groups and used this as a proxy for evaluating whether such actions are effective.

According to the authors, individuals frequently lack the technical knowledge or reliable information necessary to independently assess the environmental effect of specific behaviours and therefore rely on social cues and perceived prevalence when estimating impact. Conservatives, who are statistically less exposed to sustainable behaviour within their own ingroups, were found to infer from this lower visibility that such actions have limited practical value.

The study found this translated into lower willingness among conservatives to adopt sustainable behaviours. In one experiment, conservatives were significantly less likely than liberals to select vegetarian recipes and consistently rated the environmental benefit of switching to a plant based diet lower than liberals did. In another field study, conservatives were less likely to choose environmentally friendly consumer products when compared with conventional alternatives.

Researchers also examined how perceptions compared with measured environmental impacts. Conservatives systematically underestimated the effect of higher impact climate actions such as avoiding long haul flights or transitioning to electric vehicles. Liberals generally produced estimates closer to objective emissions data, although both groups tended to overestimate lower impact behaviours such as recycling.

The paper further found that ideological differences could be reduced where sustainable behaviour was framed differently or where impact was explicitly communicated. In one study, conservatives were more willing to cycle to work when the behaviour was presented primarily as a health related activity rather than an environmental one. Separate experiments also found that messaging emphasising how common sustainable behaviour was within conservative ingroups increased perceptions of effectiveness and willingness to participate.

The authors argued the findings carry implications for policymakers, marketers and sustainability campaigns seeking to increase uptake of climate related behaviours across politically polarised audiences. The study suggests that framing, visibility and clearer communication of measurable environmental impact may play a significant role in increasing public participation in sustainable actions.

Heatwave conditions raise battery efficiency and charging concerns for EV owners

Electric vehicle owners are being advised to take additional precautions during periods of high temperatures, as heatwaves across Europe increase pressure on battery performance, charging systems and vehicle efficiency.

According to EV charging specialists, lithium-ion batteries generally operate most efficiently at temperatures between 20°C and 25°C. Sustained temperatures above that range can reduce battery efficiency, increase thermal management demands and temporarily slow charging speeds during long journeys or rapid charging sessions.

The warnings come as parts of Europe and the United Kingdom are forecast to experience temperatures exceeding 30°C this week, with higher peaks expected later in the summer.

Industry experts said high temperatures can affect both vehicle performance and charging infrastructure. In some cases, EVs may automatically reduce charging power or temporarily pause charging activity in order to protect battery systems from overheating.

Air conditioning use during heatwaves can also reduce vehicle range significantly. According to the guidance, cooling systems may lower effective driving range by up to 17% in hotter conditions because of increased electricity consumption.

Chris Moniz, an EV charging specialist at Volta EV, recommended that drivers avoid prolonged direct sunlight exposure where possible and use shaded or underground charging facilities in order to maintain more stable charging conditions.

The guidance additionally advises drivers to limit routine charging to around 80% during hot weather in order to reduce thermal stress on battery systems, reflecting broader battery longevity recommendations already adopted by many manufacturers.

Other recommendations include using vehicle preconditioning functions while connected to the grid, activating eco-driving modes to reduce energy consumption, and avoiding driving during the hottest periods of the day where possible.

The advisory also highlighted tyre pressure monitoring as an additional issue during heatwaves, particularly for heavier battery electric vehicles, as higher temperatures can increase pressure fluctuations and affect vehicle efficiency and handling.

Commission prepares EU Critical Raw Materials Centre with joint purchasing and stockpiling powers

The European Commission is preparing legislation establishing a European Critical Raw Materials Centre aimed at strengthening the EU’s resilience to supply disruptions, export restrictions and geopolitical pressure across strategic raw materials supply chains.

According to a newly published call for evidence, the proposed Centre would focus on four main areas: joint purchasing, stockpiling, investment support and strategic market intelligence.

The initiative forms part of the wider implementation of the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Commission’s RESourceEU Action Plan, amid growing concern over Europe’s dependence on concentrated import sources for materials including rare earth elements.

The Commission explicitly linked the initiative to increasing geopolitical weaponisation of raw materials supply chains, particularly following Chinese export restrictions affecting rare earths and permanent magnets.

According to the Commission, current EU level tools remain insufficient to support rapid strategic investments, coordinate purchasing power or manage supply disruptions affecting European industry.

The proposal will therefore assess possible EU level mechanisms for coordinating demand aggregation and joint purchasing of critical raw materials, including potential EU backed offtake agreements for European industry.

The Commission will also examine options for establishing coordinated stockpiling systems intended to reduce exposure to supply shocks and price volatility, particularly for strategically sensitive sectors such as defence and aerospace.

In parallel, the proposed Centre would strengthen EU access to real time market intelligence and value chain monitoring capabilities intended to support investment, purchasing and stockpiling decisions.

The initiative additionally seeks to improve financing conditions for critical raw materials projects in both Europe and partner countries, with the Commission arguing that the EU currently lacks sufficiently rapid and flexible investment instruments compared with competitors including China, Japan and the United States.

The Commission said the proposal would build partly on the experience of Japan’s JOGMEC raw materials agency.

An impact assessment and public consultation will accompany the legislative proposal, expected during the second quarter of 2026.

Busworld Southeast Asia highlights ASEAN premium coach growth and gradual electrification shift

Busworld Southeast Asia said its 2026 edition confirmed Jakarta’s growing role as a regional hub for the ASEAN bus and coach industry, with the exhibition bringing together 47 exhibitors from nine countries and more than 5,100 registered visitors.

The event highlighted increasing demand across Southeast Asia for premium passenger experiences in the long distance coach market, including sleeper cabins, upgraded interiors and multi-class travel concepts modelled on airline and rail offerings.

Organisers said exhibitors reported strong commercial engagement despite a more cautious Indonesian market environment, with several companies additionally emphasising the importance of the exhibition as a sourcing platform for components and technical systems.

Indonesia’s bodybuilder centred industrial structure remained a major focus of the event. Unlike Europe’s integrated manufacturing model, Indonesian bus production continues to rely heavily on cooperation between chassis suppliers and domestic bodybuilders responsible for vehicle design and finishing.

MAN Truck & Bus made its debut at the exhibition alongside local partner PT Millennium Inframach Distribusi Indonesia, presenting chassis solutions aimed at the Indonesian market and reporting new orders secured during the event.

Electrification also featured prominently, although deployment remains at an earlier stage than in China or Europe. INVI introduced Higer buses to the Indonesian market, while SAG presented Golden Dragon vehicles, reflecting the growing regional presence of Chinese manufacturers.

One of the exhibition’s headline launches was PT Laksana Bus Manufaktur’s new electric coach for football club Persija Jakarta, built on a Hyundai Elec City chassis and presented as Indonesia’s first fully electric official team bus.

Alongside the exhibition, the conference programme focused heavily on electrification, digitalisation, charging infrastructure and multimodal integration, with speakers from TransJakarta, Singapore’s LTA, UITP and regional manufacturers participating.

Organisers said the event also underlined growing international interest in Southeast Asia’s bus manufacturing sector and the export ambitions of regional bodybuilders.