Smart charging could reduce Europe’s grid investment needs by €10.6 billion

Europe could avoid more than €10.6 billion in electricity grid investment by making smarter use of existing network capacity as electric vehicle uptake grows, according to modelling undertaken by Siemens.

The study, commissioned jointly by EIT Urban Mobility, ChargeUp Europe, and the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, estimates that €24.7 billion in electricity distribution grid investment would be required by 2030 to accommodate projected electric vehicle growth. Under a scenario incorporating intelligent EV load management, this requirement could fall to approximately €14.1 billion.

The Electricity Grids in Europe study assesses how the projected uptake of battery-electric passenger cars and light-duty vehicles could affect electricity distribution grids across the EU27 and three European Economic Area countries.

Based on six urban archetypes, the model was applied across 64 urban centres to assess how investment, digitalisation, and flexibility could prepare Europe’s electricity networks for the transition to zero-emission mobility.

The study examines the role of EV load management, meaning the near-real-time control of vehicle charging power to prevent network overload during periods of peak electricity demand. Combined with grid digitalisation, managed charging could allow network operators to make better use of existing capacity and reduce the scale of physical reinforcement required.

Electric vehicle adoption is expected to accelerate considerably over the coming years. By 2030, battery-electric vehicles are projected to account for 27.3% of Sweden’s passenger car fleet, 15.7% in Germany, 4.6% in Italy, 4.5% in Spain, and 2.5% in Poland. This would represent growth of between 3.4 and 5.3 times compared with 2024 levels.

Electrification of commercial transport is also expected to advance rapidly in several markets. The battery-electric share of light-duty vehicle fleets is projected to reach 22.7% in Sweden, 9.1% in Germany, and 5.9% in Poland. Poland’s electric van fleet could grow almost tenfold over the same period.

The location and timing of charging will have a significant effect on local electricity demand. The study assumes that between 55% and 62% of electric vehicle owners in the representative cities will have access to residential charging by 2030, placing particular pressure on low-voltage distribution networks.

Across the 64 urban centres assessed, battery-electric vehicle numbers are projected to increase 3.8-fold by 2030. Every centre would require some physical reinforcement, with 77.7% of the associated investment expected to be directed towards low-voltage networks.

The modelling indicates that load management could reduce the overall investment requirement by approximately 43%. However, smart charging would not eliminate the need for physical infrastructure. Grid reinforcement would remain necessary across every European region included in the study.

The findings reinforce the need to coordinate transport electrification, charging deployment, and local grid planning. Europe’s ability to reduce the cost of the transition will depend on moving beyond nominal smart-charging capability towards systems that operate effectively across vehicles, charging points, energy suppliers, and distribution networks.

Chinese and US manufacturers could capture up to quarter of European electric truck market by 2030

Chinese and US manufacturers could capture up to a quarter of Europe’s electric heavy-truck market by 2030 as new models combine competitive technical performance with lower ownership costs, according to research published by Transport & Environment.

The analysis examines vehicle costs, technical specifications, and manufacturers’ stated European market-entry objectives. It warns that established European producers could lose market share if they delay the transition from combustion engines to battery-electric trucks.

Zero-emission trucks accounted for 5.6% of EU sales in 2025, twice the share recorded one year earlier. Uptake has advanced considerably faster in some national markets, with electric trucks representing more than 15% of new sales in Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands.

The research finds that electric trucks offered by new entrants are becoming comparable with European models across key operational measures, including driving range, charging time, maximum payload, and energy efficiency. Price and ownership costs could therefore become decisive factors as logistics operators begin replacing larger parts of their fleets.

Purchasing a Chinese electric truck could reduce total ownership costs by 12% compared with an equivalent European model. For a German transport operator, the study estimates that choosing a vehicle supplied by a new entrant could reduce ownership costs from €0.63 per kilometre to €0.55 per kilometre, including residual value. This would produce savings of up to €43,000 over five years.

Such differences could be significant in a road haulage sector where profit margins frequently remain between 1.5% and 2%. New manufacturers would not necessarily need to offer superior vehicles if their models provide comparable performance at a materially lower cost.

Europe’s heavy-truck market, which records approximately 245,000 vehicle sales annually, remains concentrated among Daimler Truck, Traton, Iveco, DAF, and Volvo Group. This concentration could allow competitive new entrants to acquire market share rapidly if operators consider their products suitable for European routes and charging conditions.

The projected market share is based partly on manufacturers’ stated ambitions and does not represent a confirmed sales outcome. Market access will also depend on distribution networks, maintenance capacity, financing, residual values, and customer confidence.

However, the findings add an industrial-policy dimension to the forthcoming debate over the EU’s heavy-duty vehicle CO₂ standards. European manufacturers have sought greater regulatory flexibility, but slowing the transition could also give foreign competitors more time to establish their products and supporting networks.

The question facing policymakers is therefore not limited to the speed of decarbonisation. The review will also test whether additional regulatory flexibility would protect European manufacturing or weaken demand for the technologies in which international competitors are investing most aggressively.

Real-world plug-in hybrid emissions reach six times official test results

Carbon dioxide emissions from plug-in hybrid cars registered in 2024 were approximately six times the level indicated by official laboratory results, according to data published by the European Environment Agency.

The real-world emissions data show that plug-in hybrids emitted an average of 145 grams of CO₂ per kilometre during ordinary use, compared with 24 grams under official testing.

The difference has widened since monitoring began. Plug-in hybrids registered in 2023 emitted an average of 138 grams per kilometre under real-world conditions, against an official result of 28 grams. Real-world emissions therefore increased by approximately 5% between the two reporting years, while officially recorded emissions declined by approximately 14%.

The latest findings are based on fuel-consumption information collected from approximately 220,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles. On-road fuel consumption is recorded through monitoring devices installed in vehicles, allowing regulators to compare laboratory certification results with actual use.

At 145 grams per kilometre, the average real-world emissions of plug-in hybrids were only 14% lower than the 169 grams recorded for conventional combustion-engine cars. This raises questions about the extent to which plug-in hybrids can contribute to fleet decarbonisation when they are not charged regularly or are driven for longer distances using their combustion engines.

The discrepancy is particularly important because official emissions values contribute to assessments of manufacturers’ compliance with the EU’s fleet-wide CO₂ standards. Where laboratory values substantially underestimate emissions, manufacturers may receive greater regulatory benefit from selling plug-in hybrids than their real-world performance would otherwise justify.

The EU has sought to narrow the difference by adjusting the utility factors used to estimate the proportion of kilometres driven electrically. A further adjustment is scheduled for 2027, but automotive manufacturers and suppliers are pressing for greater flexibility as the Commission reviews the car and van CO₂ standards.

A CLEPA-commissioned survey published this week found that 47% of respondents across France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain preferred incentives for low and zero-emission vehicles over restrictions on particular technologies. Only 8% said they intended to purchase a battery-electric vehicle as their next car.

The survey, conducted by YouGov among 5,221 adults, also found that 75% considered their country unprepared for full electrification. Charging infrastructure and vehicle affordability were each cited as concerns by 46% of respondents, while 37% pointed to energy costs.

The findings support the automotive supply industry’s argument that the transition should accommodate several drivetrain technologies while the conditions for widespread electrification continue to develop.

However, the Agency’s data could make it more difficult to justify regulatory treatment based on emissions levels that are not reflected in ordinary vehicle use. The dispute is therefore likely to focus not only on whether plug-in hybrids remain available after 2035, but also on how accurately they should be counted towards manufacturers’ interim targets.

ICRT paper proposes airport-level emissions caps if aviation measures fall short

International airports should be given emissions-reduction targets covering departing flights, with slot restrictions available where cleaner fuels and aircraft technologies fail to deliver sufficient cuts, a new policy paper has proposed.

The paper, published by the International Centre for Responsible Tourism Global and written by Air Transport Economics Chief Executive Chris Lyle, argues that sustainable aviation fuel, operational improvements, and alternative propulsion are unlikely to bring the sector to net zero without some form of demand management.

Under the proposed system, an airport would be accountable for emissions from the first leg of every departing flight, including those generated during cruise. If the airport exceeded its emissions trajectory, authorities could use the existing slot-allocation process to restrict capacity.

Routes would be assessed according to their contribution to employment and gross domestic product, the connectivity they provide, the availability of lower-emission alternatives, and their emissions per passenger. Private aviation would receive a lower priority, while flights serving least-developed countries, landlocked developing countries, and small-island developing states would be exempted.

The framework would permit emissions trading between airports and airlines and recognise sustainable aviation fuel credits. The paper proposes limiting book-and-claim credits to long-haul flights, where alternative propulsion and surface transport options are less viable.

The authors acknowledge that global agreement is unlikely and suggest that the approach could instead be pursued by an individual country or group of states. Any implementation would have to address international traffic rights, competition between airports and carriers, and the economic exposure of tourism-dependent destinations.